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last updated
9/27/2013
HOW PUBLIC OPINION DEVELOPS
(based on Yankelovich polling research)
Changes in public opinion for complex issues occurs in stages, maybe taking up to 10 years.
-
Dawning Awareness - only some aspects and some facts become known to
individuals
- Greater Urgency - individuals know of the issue and believe it is important
-- maybe personally
- Discovering the Choices - usually only the choices of visible or
credible public figures (often emotionally linked) are recognized by individuals
- Wishful Thinking - resistance to tough choices,
people tend to want more services and
lower costs - disconnection between voters and leaders can cause this, politicians
can exploit this.
- Weighing the Choices - movement back and forth between
3 and 4. Involves the public (not leaders and others) actually determining
choices and balancing cost and benefits.
(3, 4, and 5 are all "working through it"
-- coming to a conclusion)
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Taking a Stand Intellectually - individuals
arriving at a conclusion they can explain and defend
- Making the Judgment Morally and Emotionally - people
first come to accept the idea in their minds (6), then in their hearts. requires
moving beyond one's personal interests. (Fairly rare in actual practice)
Social Science Theories of "MEDIA AGENDA SETTING"
- Hypodermic Needle theory - injecting opinions into people -
There's not much evidence supporting
this. (the research focus was on attitudes not knowledge or awareness)
- Now the focus is on Awareness Effects and Prioritization.
for example, TV seems to follow
newspapers. In this theory the conclusion is that "media does not
tell us what to think but rather what to think about."
- WHO is setting the public/political agenda?
- Media Messages?
- Pack journalism?
- Gatekeepers?
- Politicians controlling stories? (Isn't it a dialectic?)
- What puts an issue on the agenda?
- Public opinion (note stages) of "what's important
to me?"
-- to others? -- to community?
- Politicians responses to events and concerns
(e.g. GOP "Repeal ObamaCare")
- The Media's questions to elite figures.
There is some evidence for agenda setting
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Media seem influence each other's agendas
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Major effects are largely informational and do not have large
opinion shifts
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When issues are more distant / less personal --> media has greater effect on public
opinion.
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