Clint Albracht
Persuasion Outline
Introduction
Attention Material Show a scene from the movie Deep Impact.
Thesis/Overview In my last speech, I told you about the serious threat that PHO’s pose to both to our planet, and our future. I also explained that this is the only type of natural disaster that can be avoided. Today I am going to list some of the possible solutions which have been offered to deal with this problem, I will give a set of criteria which the possible solutions can be compared with to decide which is most suitable, and in the end, I will give my own suggestion on which course of action seems to be the best one.
Motivation If what I had to say before scared you, then what I have to say today can offer you some hope.
Ethos Since future impacts are inevitable, and preventing them is desirable, this topic is important to the world. Accordingly, I have researched the solutions as thoroughly as possible so that I could provide you with the best of the suggested answers so far.
Thought Pattern Problem-Solution
(Transition) (First let’s review what the problem is.)
Problem As David Morrison mentioned in his NASA sponsored website, PHOs are careening through the universe, threatening any planets they pass. The biggest factor that causes them to be a problem is that nobody is searching for them (Morrison).
(Transition) (In order to choose the best solution, a criteria must be established so that prospective possibilities can be compared to each other.)
A. The criteria should ask questions like:
1. How much time do we have before the impact?
a. As Peter Grego stated in his book Collision Earth, this is the most important piece of information we can have.
b. Some solutions should only be used when we are limited on time; others would be more practical with a lot of time to prepare.
2. How much will the solution cost?
a. If a couple of solutions were possible, the least expensive one would be most desirable.
3. Is the solution feasible?
a. Some solutions that I have read about have seemed more like science fiction than science fact.
4. Will the solution really help the problem?
a. As you will see, the first solution which I will explain is a loose loose proposition. It does not help the situation at all.
(Transition) (Here are the 3 most excepted possibilities suggested so far.)
Solution B. Solutions
I. Duck and Cover (Lewis)
John Lewis, a columnist for
Futurist who wrote an article entitled, “Escaping the Ultimate Disaster.” Laid out this scenario.
If scientists discovered an asteroid a mile wide, careening through
space, which would hit
a. Plan a mass evacuation of all areas immediately affected by the impact.
b. Stockpile enough food, water, medical supplies, and anything else which might be deemed necessary.
2. How does it stack up to the criteria?
a. A solution like this would only be used when we were short on time. The idea here is that were are certain that we are going to get hit and cannot do anything about it.
b. This plan would be incredibly expensive. The price of moving the people and saving enough resources to sustain everyone would be enormous. An even greater price would be paid when the object hit our surface.
c. The logistics of such an endeavor would be almost impossible. Moving and housing all of the refugees would be difficult. Saving enough supplies to serve all the survivors of a post impact existence seems unrealistic. An even greater danger would lie in the possibility of the object s arrival being miscalculated, and having it impact over a densely populated region.
c. My feeling is that it would not really help the situation. While it would be ludicrous to stand by and do nothing, this does not seem like a good answer.
II. Operation Deflection (Space)
The best possible solution offered so far was in a documentary on Discovery named Space Watch. It involved attaching rockets onto the surface of the PHO while it is still far away from the planet, and then nudging the object into another path.
2. How does this stack up against our criteria?
a. This option could only be exercised when there was a lot of time available to prevent an impact.
b. While it would be expensive to design, test, and employ this action, it would be far cheaper than voluntarily sustaining an impact.
c. The technology for this solution has not yet been created. In fact, the concept remains on the drawing board. But if the technology were developed, the solution would be feasible.
d. It would definitely help the situation. By preventing an impact all together, the future of the planet becomes safer.
III. Sensible Solution
With many ways being developed to avoid a hazardous impact, it would make sense that people should be looking for PHO’s.
a. Our goal in choosing a solution relies heavily on being able to see the impact coming, and placing a time on its arrival. Since this practice helps to establish the time of arrival, I would say that it is worthy cause.
b. The cost of a sky research program would be small. Gerrit Verschuur of sky and telescope believes that this task could be accomplished with the addition of two telescopes and 18 night observers. At that rate, Mr. Verschuur estimates that 90 % of PHOs could be identified within the next 15 years (Verschuur).
c. The only thing that might prevent this endeavor from being feasible is the narrow mindedness of politicians. Attempts have been made before to begin sky-searching programs, but they have met with little enthusiasm from Capitol Hill.
c. Looking for PHO’s, cataloging them, and tracing through the ages can only be beneficial for humanity.
Attention Material We have been offered many possible solutions for handling this problem. In truth, many more have been suggested, but until serious, government funded research begins on this subject; these ideas remain in the minds of scientists who conjured them. And while those ideas are laying dormant, there are a plethora of PHOs cruising our galaxy.
Underview To me, the best possible course of action would be a three-pronged approach.
a. Number one, we need to be looking for the PHOs. I just can’t say it enough that if we want to be prepared for an impact with a PHO, we need to know if one is coming.
b. Number two, we need an increase in the amount of money that the governments of the world relegate to space related endeavors such as sky research and rocket technologies. By spending more money now on prevention, the devastating cost of an impact can be erased completely.
c. And number three; perfection of the deflection plan seems to be the best bet. Avoiding a collision entirely is always good advice.
Last
Thought While I am not
suggesting that this topic is more deserving of funds than helping the
homeless, or bringing terrorists to justice, it does deserve more attention
than the politicians in
Deep Impact. Dir. Mimi Leder. With Robert Duval, Morgan freeman, and Tea Leoni. Paramount, 1998.
"Space Watch: Search for the Doomsday Rock." Discovery Documentary hosted by Mark Lenord. 1983.
Lewis, John S. "Escaping the Ultimate Disaster - A Cosmic Collision." Futurist
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97: 16. EBSCOhost
Academic Universe.
Grego, Peter. Collision
Earth! The Threat from
Outer Space.
1998.
Morrison, David. "FAQ: Ten Frequently Asked Questions about NEO Impacts."
Asteroid and Comet Impact Hazards. SEPT 2000.
1-3. NASA
Science Division.
neo.html/>
Verschuur, Gerritt L. "Impact Hazards: Truth and Consequences." Sky and Telescope
JUNE
98: 26.
InfoTracWeb Expanded Academic ASAP.